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Third Saturday in October: Alabama's 44-Point Offense Walks Into Neyland, and Tennessee Needs to Run
By MVPeav · @MVPeav ·
Both of these teams are 5-1. Both lost 20-17 at home to a big name. That is about where the resemblance ends.
Alabama scores 44 a game, the most in the country. Tennessee throws for 186 a game, which is 120th. One of those two numbers is going to decide this (and it isn't the one that lives in Knoxville).
Third Saturday in October, 3:30 at Neyland. Let's get into it, who is gonna be lighting up the cigars.
Alabama: Best Offense in the Country, With a Leaky Back End
Alabama is putting up 44.2 points a game, 1st in FBS, and it did a lot of that damage on the road: 56 at Mississippi State, 45 at Kentucky. This isn't a team padding numbers at home against bodybags.
Keelon Russell is the reason. Bama is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt (5th in FBS) and 18% of its plays go for explosives (4th). It doesn't drive the field so much as skip chunks of it.
Then Georgia came to town and Russell looked like a freshman for the first time all year: 16-of-30 for 185 and 4 sacks in the 17-20 loss. One bad afternoon, but it's the one everybody's going to bring up on Saturday, so there it is.
He also won't have everybody. Ryan Coleman-Williams is expected to miss this one, which thins out a receiver room that was doing a lot of the chunk-play work.
The real wart is on the other side of the ball tho. Alabama's pass defense is giving up 8.1 yards per attempt, 105th in FBS. Against a team that can throw, that's a problem. Which brings us to the good news.
Tennessee: Run It, Defend the Pass, Hope
Tennessee can't throw. 186.5 passing yards a game, 120th in FBS. The one real soft spot on the Alabama roster is the one spot the Vols are least equipped to attack, and that's the whole preview if you want to leave early (but hopefully you don't).
What they can do is run. 228.3 rushing yards a game, 15th in the country, and the Vols' wins have looked like a team that knows it: Auburn 24-14 at home and 45-24 at Georgia Tech, where they ran all over my Jackets and I'm still not ready to talk about it.
The defense is legit too. 5.5 yards per attempt allowed (14th in FBS) and 15.5 points a game allowed (17th). Nobody has lit this group up, including Texas, which only got 20 in the Vols' one loss.
The quarterback spot is the thing hanging over it all. George MacIntyre started last week against Arkansas after Faizon Brandon's shoulder injury, and Brandon's status is still unsettled. Either way, this offense is going to be handing it off a lot and asking the defense to hold.
The Whole Game: Vols Ground Game vs. Tide Front
So it's run game vs front, and the front is good. Alabama is allowing 99.8 rushing yards a game, 20th in FBS, and 3.0 a carry, 17th. Tennessee's 228 is going to run into something it hasn't seen yet.
That is the entire ballgame. If the Vols can get the run going, they shorten the day, keep Russell on the bench, and make it a 4th-quarter game in a stadium that gets loud. If they can't, they're asking a 120th-ranked passing game to catch up to a 44-point offense, and that goes how you think it goes.
There's a second lever and it's turnovers. Alabama is +7 on the year, 6th in FBS. Tennessee is +1, 26th. The team that needs to win the turnover battle to have a chance is the one that's been worse at it, which is not a great spot to be in.
Third Saturday Storylines
Alabama walks into Knoxville off its first loss, a little banged up, and with a freshman quarterback coming off his worst game. Tennessee walks in 5-1 at home with a crowd that has been waiting all year for this one.
The all-time series sits at 60-40-7 Alabama, and Bama took last year's game 37-20. The last two trips to Neyland, 2022 and 2024, went to Tennessee, so the Vols have earned the right to think this building does something to the Tide.
I'm not sweating it. The fire DeBoer showed at the end of the UGA game is the thing I keep coming back to, and I think a lot of Bama fans feel the same way. That loss stung, but a coach who's that fed up about a 3-point loss is a coach I'm fine going on the road with.
My call for the cigars: Alabama's lighting them.
What 10,000 Sims Say
My sims have Alabama winning 80% of the time, with a median score of 31-19. The middle of the distribution runs from Bama by 21 down to Bama by 3, so a close one is on the table, but a blowout is just as much on it.
The Tennessee wins look exactly like the game we just described. In the sims the Vols win, they run for about 172 yards. In the sims Alabama wins, that number is 110. Alabama also turns it over about 1.6 times in the games it loses, against 0.8 in the games it wins. Run the ball, take it away, keep it in the 20s. That's the only version.
The quarterback gap shows up too. Russell's median line is 258 passing yards with 2 TD. MacIntyre's is 195 with 1. Not a blowout at the position, but the gap is real, and it's the gap that decides the 80.
Bottom Line: Bama, Unless Neyland Turns It Into a Rock Fight
Tennessee's path exists. It's narrow, it's ugly, and it runs straight through a top-20 run defense while hoping a sophomore quarterback coming off 4 sacks gets rattled by the crowd and throws one away. Neyland has done that to Alabama twice recently. I'm not pretending it can't happen again.
I just don't think it does. I expect Bama to get back into rhythm and stretch its legs after the Georgia game, and once that offense gets rolling, Tennessee's passing game isn't built to chase it. Bama wins, and I don't think it's close.