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Ohio State Gets Its Shot at the Indiana Team That Wrecked Its Perfect Season
By MVPeav · @MVPeav ·
Last December Indiana sacked Julian Sayin five times and beat Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten title game. That was the one that ended the Buckeyes' perfect season, and it's the one Ohio State has been staring at for 10 months like a bad text you can't stop rereading.
Saturday at noon they get the rematch. Only this time it's in Bloomington, where Indiana hasn't lost since Curt Cignetti showed up, so the "we owe them one" energy comes with a road trip attached.
It's a top-five game, and it's two teams built in completely opposite ways. One throws it all over the yard. The other runs you into the dirt and dares you to do anything about it.
Ohio State: Sayin, Smith and a Defense Nobody Can Throw On
Ohio State's offense is a passing offense, full stop. The Buckeyes throw for 337.8 yards a game, 2nd in FBS, and they do it with the best quarterback-receiver combo in the sport, and I don't think that's close.
Sayin is completing over 71% of his throws with 17 touchdowns against 2 picks. Two picks. Jeremiah Smith has 916 receiving yards already, and he's the reason every safety in the Big Ten has a stiff neck.
The run game is the part nobody puts on a billboard. Ohio State averages 4.3 yards a carry, 64th in the country, which for a roster this loaded is the football equivalent of showing up to a car show in a minivan.
The defense is the opposite of ordinary. It gives up 4.8 yards per pass attempt, best in FBS, and 13.2 points a game. Throwing on this group is more like a cry for help rather than a solid plan.
The only blemish is a 24-23 loss at Texas. Wins at Iowa (31-14) and over Illinois (42-19) say the rest of the season has gone exactly how a team this good is supposed to go.
Indiana: 6-0, Still Running Everyone Over
Mendoza is gone and Josh Hoover is the quarterback now. Indiana lost a Heisman winner and kept winning anyway, which is the kind of thing that used to happen to Indiana, not for Indiana.
The formula is the run game. Indiana averages 6.1 yards a carry, 3rd in FBS, and it's not a trick stat. The Hoosiers pile up 221.3 rushing yards a game, and they do it with the subtlety of a snowplow.
They stop the run just as well. Opponents get 75.0 rushing yards a game against Indiana, 8th in the country, so if your plan is to pound it, enjoy your 3-and-outs and expect to have a long day.
Indiana scores 37.2 a game against FBS teams and allows 14.2. The résumé has it 2nd in our rankings, with the best wins coming at Nebraska (20-17) and at home over Northwestern (29-23).
Those two scores are the interesting part tho. Both were close, and that Northwestern game in particular is the one that makes you wonder if Indiana has slipped a notch.
The Matchup: Sayin vs. a Mediocre Secondary, Indiana's Run Game vs. a Good-Not-Great Front
Each team's best unit gets to attack the other team's soft spot, which is why this is a great game and not just a loud one.
Indiana's pass defense is only 64th in FBS at 188.3 yards a game. That's the unit lined up across from the 2nd-best passing offense in the country. Sayin and Smith are going to get their shots, and a 64th-ranked secondary is going to find out what a bad Saturday feels like.
On the other side, Ohio State's run defense is good, not great. It allows 96.2 rushing yards a game, 19th in FBS, and 3.2 a carry. Indiana is the first team on the Buckeyes' schedule that can really test it.
Efficiency is basically a wash. Ohio State's offense is at +0.21 EPA per play, Indiana's is at +0.24, so neither side is bringing a knife to a gunfight.
The swing unit is Indiana's pass rush. The Hoosiers have 20 sacks this season, and the five they got on Sayin last December are the whole reason the title game went the way it did. If they get home again, Ohio State's passing numbers are just trivia.
Round Two of 13-10
I'll be honest, I liked that title game. It was a fun defensive matchup, two defenses refusing to give an inch, and it truly went down to the wire. Ugly on the scoreboard, great in the moment. If I'm ranking conference championship games from last year, 13-10 was one of the more fun ones, but part of that is because I grew up around the classic Saban defenses and learned to love a low scoring slugfest.
Ohio State hasn't had a chance to answer it until now. The Buckeyes went undefeated into Indianapolis and left with nothing, and that sits in a locker room for a long time.
Indiana, meanwhile, has won 22 straight and hasn't lost at Memorial Stadium under Cignetti. Bloomington is now a place where good teams go to have bad afternoons.
What My Sims Say
I ran this one 10,000 times. My sims have Ohio State winning 60% of them, with a median score of Ohio State 23, Indiana 20.
The winner in my sims is whoever runs the ball best. Indiana averages 145 rushing yards in the games it wins and 97 in the games it loses. Ohio State is the same story: 148 in its wins, 102 in its losses. Same number, different jersey.
That lines up with everything we've already talked about. If Indiana's front turns Ohio State one-dimensional, the pass rush takes over and we get the December game all over again. If Ohio State finds enough run game to keep Indiana honest, Sayin gets time and that secondary gets picked apart.
The other thing that separates Ohio State's wins from its losses is the ball. The Buckeyes turn it over about once a game in their sim wins and 1.9 times in their sim losses. On the road, in that building, two giveaways is probably the game, and the second one is the one that gets Ryan Day's Monday press conference weird.
Bottom Line
I'm on the same side as my sims here. Indiana has taken a step back in my eyes, and the Northwestern game is the reason: a 29-23 win at home over Northwestern is a lot closer than I'd have wanted to see from a top-five team (not sure that I'm ready to buy into Northwestern yet). Ohio State is the opposite story. That team looks very good, and the one mark against is the 4th quarter choke job in Austin. Find a kicker worth a damn and they are unbeaten.
The way Ohio State wins is simple: hold onto the ball and get enough from the ground game that Indiana can't just sit back and send everyone at Sayin. Do that and one of the best passing attacks in the country beats a 64th-ranked secondary.
The way Indiana wins is the way it won last time. Get after the quarterback, run it 6 yards a pop, and keep it close enough that Bloomington does the rest. That's a 40% outcome in my sims, which is a long way from unlikely.
The middle half of my sims runs from Ohio State by 13 to Indiana by 6. That's a game that's close most of the time, with Ohio State's ceiling higher. I think the Buckeyes get their revenge, but nobody's leaving that stadium before the final play.