CFB · PREVIEWS · ALABAMA · TEXAS-A-AND-M · SEC · COLLEGE-FOOTBALL
Alabama Is Off Two Straight Losses. Texas A&M's Passing Game Isn't Built to Make It Three.
By MVPeav · @MVPeav ·
Alabama has lost 2 regular-season games in a row for the first time since 2007. Say that out loud in Tuscaloosa and it sounds like a crisis.
Then look at who's walking into Bryant-Denny for Homecoming. Texas A&M is 4-3, 1-3 in the SEC, and throws the ball at 6.2 yards an attempt, 128th out of 138 teams in FBS. That's the passing offense, all season.
So yes, the Tide is wounded, the line is getting beat up and the top receiver is expected out. I still don't see how the Aggies score enough to make it 3 straight.
The Aggies Win Ugly or Not at All
Credit where it's due, because the A&M defense is real. 17.1 points allowed a game is 32nd in FBS, and they hold teams to 164.1 passing yards a game, 28th. That's a unit that gets off the field.
The trouble is everything that happens when the other unit comes on. 195.4 passing yards a game, 105th in FBS, and an explosive-play rate of 11%, also 105th. The Aggies don't hit you with anything. They lean on you and hope you fall over.
That works at home against the wrong teams. The best wins are 48-20 over Arizona State and 34-7 over Arkansas, both at Kyle Field. The road trips are the tell: 6-35 at LSU, 6-27 at Missouri. 6 points, twice. At Mizzou the offense managed 27 rushing yards and 216 total, and Marcel Reed went 19 of 39.
Last week's 41-0 over The Citadel is nice for the mood and useless for the scouting report. The common opponent tells on them tho: A&M lost 31-21 to Kentucky at home. Alabama went to Lexington and beat Kentucky 45-17.
Bama's Offense Is Fine. Everything Around It Got Loud.
What hasn't changed: Alabama scores 39.3 points a game, 5th in FBS. Keelon Russell is throwing it at 9.0 yards an attempt, 14th in the country, and the turnover margin is +5. The offense that walked into October is the same offense walking into Homecoming.
Russell's season line is 67.5% completions, 12 TD and 4 INT, plus 231 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores. The Tennessee game is the one that stuck, 147 passing yards total in a 26-10 loss where the pressure got to him, a week after the 20-17 loss to Georgia at home.
My read on the skid is that it's a little overrated. Both losses came against some very good defenses, and the scores say so: 17 against Georgia, 10 at Tennessee. The part I won't argue is that it has to stop here. Round strong on Saturday and this is a blip. Lose a third one to a team that can't throw and it descends into panic fast.
The loud part is everything around the offense. The pass defense gives up 230.9 yards a game, 80th in FBS, and 7.8 yards an attempt, 88th. The offensive line has allowed 9 sacks and 16 tackles for loss over the recent stretch. Ryan Coleman-Williams is expected out after arthroscopic knee surgery, which also kept him out of the Tennessee game, and Zabien Brown and EJ Crowell are concerns too.
Add it up and the résumé is 5-2, No. 13, 3-2 in the SEC, with the best wins at Kentucky and 56-23 at Mississippi State. It's a good team that got punched twice in a row. It's not a bad team.
Big Plays vs. the Defense That Allows Them
This is the matchup. Alabama's explosive-play rate is 16%, 5th in FBS. A&M's defense gives up explosive plays on 13% of snaps, 119th in FBS.
Read that again next to the scoring defense. A unit that's 32nd in points allowed and 119th in big plays allowed is a defense that's been bending all year and getting bailed out by offenses that can't cash a chunk play into 7. Alabama is the team that cashes it.
The counter is the 164.1 passing yards A&M allows, and that's a fair point, but the number comes from games against LSU, Missouri and Kentucky offenses plus a week against The Citadel. Russell at 9.0 a throw is a different animal, even without Coleman-Williams. Lotzeir Brooks becomes the guy the deep shots go to, and A&M has to prove it can keep him in front of the safeties.
How A&M Pulls It Off: Run It and Hit Russell
Two things, and the Aggies need both. First, run the ball into a Bama front that allows 107.0 rushing yards a game, 24th in FBS, and 3.1 yards a carry, 16th. For a team that had 27 rushing yards at Missouri, that's asking Rueben Owens II for the day of his year.
Second, get to Russell. Tennessee wrote the plan: 9 sacks and 16 tackles for loss allowed by that line recently, and Russell under pressure all afternoon, finishing with 147 passing yards for the whole game. A&M corner Dezz Ricks called him "really good with his feet," so the Aggies know what they're dealing with. Make him move, then make him throw on the move. Elko has watched that Tennessee tape 40 times by now.
If A&M gets the ground game going and Russell is on his back, Reed only has to not lose it, and a 19-of-39 quarterback can manage that against a secondary giving up 7.8 a throw. That path exists. It's just a narrow one.
What 10,000 Sims Say
Alabama wins 78% of the time in my sims, and a typical one ends 31-20. The middle half of Tide margins runs from +2 to +21, so most of these are comfortable and a decent chunk are one-score sweats.
The version where A&M wins is the one above. The Aggies run for 159 yards in the sims they win and 109 in the sims they lose. Russell takes 1.5 sacks in Alabama wins and 2.5 in Alabama losses, so one extra sack separates a cruise from a coin flip.
The other separator is red-zone trips. Alabama gets 4.7 of them in its wins and 3.5 in its losses, and the way that happens is the deep ball: Russell's median day is 253 yards and 2 touchdowns, against an A&M defense that can't stop the deep ball.
Bottom Line: Homecoming Fixes Something
Alabama wins this because A&M's passing game can't keep up with an offense that scores 39 a game, and because the Aggie defense that looks great on the scoreboard gives up exactly the play Alabama lives on.
History is on the same side. Alabama has won 10 of 12 meetings since A&M joined the SEC, and the Aggies' last win at Bryant-Denny was 2012. Mike Elko is coaching against Alabama for the first time as a head coach, and it's A&M's first crack at a Tide team not led by Saban.
Two straight losses is a number worth taking seriously. A team that scored 6 at LSU and 6 at Missouri is not the team that makes it 3. Alabama 31, A&M 20, and the skid talk goes quiet for a week.