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Upset Watch, Week 10: The Sims Make Tulsa and Iowa Road Favorites
By MVPeav · @MVPeav ·
The scariest spot for a favorite this week is a homecoming game in New Orleans. Tulane hosts Tulsa, and my sims hand the game to Tulsa 61.6% of the time.
The rest of this list lives in coin-flip country, with my sims liking the dog more than FPI does. Alabama in Death Valley at 49. Kentucky at Tennessee at 48. Oklahoma at Florida right there with them.
What I care about is the why. Every one of these games has one matchup that explains the number, so I'll walk through them, shakiest favorite first.
Tulsa Gets the Worst Run Defense on the Board
Tulane's run defense gives up 214.2 yards a game, 132nd in FBS. Tulsa's job Saturday is to hand the ball off until somebody in a green helmet proves he can tackle.
Tulane's offense doesn't bail the defense out either. It stays on schedule on 35% of its snaps, 128th in the country, so a lot of possessions die before the run defense even gets a chance to be bad.
My sims bump Tulsa up to 40.4% on 3rd down from a 32.7% season norm. Tulane's defense allows 52.1% on the money down, so the sims might be selling Tulsa short there.
The typical sim lands Tulsa 28, Tulane 24. FPI has Tulsa at 48.6%, so this is one of the quieter disagreements on the board, but it's the only game where my sims flip the favorite outright.
Fair warning, because Tulsa fans already know the deal. Tulsa's own run defense allows 202.0 yards a game, 131st, one spot better than Tulane. The losses are Army, Navy and a 44-45 gut punch to North Texas.
Tulsa also gets loose with the ball in these sims, 1.1 turnovers a game against a 0.571 season average, which is most of the reason this sits at 61 and not somewhere silly. And the rankings can't agree on who's worse. Our résumé has Tulsa 100th and Tulane 82nd. SP+ flips it, 83rd and 100th.
Baylor Hayes came back from a two-game knee sprain on Oct 17 and accounted for 3 TDs in the 38-17 win at Rice. Tulane's QB spot is unsettled as of this week, and the head coach calls the position "always open." One team has its quarterback, the other is still interviewing.
Iowa's Run Wall Meets Northwestern's Ground Game
Iowa's run defense allows 79.0 yards a game, 3rd in FBS, at 2.4 a carry. Northwestern's offense lives on the ground, 214.4 yards a game, and my sims chop that to 119.
When the run goes away, the drives go with it. The sims have the Wildcats going 3-and-out on 26.5% of possessions against a 12.7% season norm. Double the punts, half the rushing yards, a 21-21 median. FPI gives Iowa 44.8% here. My sims say 50.9%.
Northwestern has an answer, and it's the big play. The Wildcats hit explosives on 18% of their snaps, 2nd in the country, and sit at +10 in turnover margin. One long run a quarter undoes a lot of 3-and-outs.
And Iowa's offense is still Iowa's offense. 100th in EPA per play. 86th in passing at 209.4 yards a game. Hank Brown threw for 222 yards against Wisconsin and got Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week for it, which tells you exactly where the bar sits in Iowa City.
Center Cael Winter will likely miss this one as of this week, so Michael Myslinski would snap in a game Iowa needs to grind out. Northwestern's QB, Aidan Chiles, beat Iowa by double digits back when he was at Michigan State. Kirk Ferentz has seen this guy before and I doubt he enjoyed it.
Oklahoma's Defense Could Drag Florida Into a 21-21 Slog
Oklahoma is 4-4 and fired its offensive coordinator on Monday, with Jason Witten calling plays on an interim basis. My sims still have the Sooners winning 49.6% at Florida, where FPI puts them at 36.0%.
The defense is why. Oklahoma allows 304.6 yards a game, 19th in FBS, and 175.4 through the air, 14th. Florida's defense allows 235.8 passing yards a game, 105th. One of these units can cover, and the other one has been getting torched.
Florida's passing game is what breaks. The completion rate drops from a 70% season norm to 60.9% in my sims, and the 3rd-down rate slides from 47.9% to 35.4%. Oklahoma's defense allows 29.0% on 3rd down, so the sims are being generous to the Gators.
Florida's QB situation is unsettled as of this week, with Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. listed as co-first-teamers and WR Vernell Brown III likely out. A two-man depth chart throwing into the 14th-ranked pass defense is how you end up with a 21-21 median.
The other half of this game is ugly. Oklahoma scores 22.0 points a game, 92nd. It averages 3.2 yards a carry, 125th, and its turnover margin is -4, 104th. The Sooners beat Texas 27-24 on a neutral field with that offense, so winning ugly is on the résumé. Now they have to do it again with a tight end calling the plays.
Alabama Walks Into Death Valley at a Coin Flip
My sims make this 49.0% for Alabama, with a 22-23 median. FPI says 43.0%. Either way it's a coin flip in Tiger Stadium at night, and I've got a dog in this one.
I want to believe in my Tide. They've spent the last month giving me every reason not to. Alabama has lost two of three after starting 5-0 and is 0-2 against Quad 1, a 17-20 loss to Georgia and a 10-26 mess at Tennessee.
So why 49? The offense. Alabama scores 38.2 a game, 7th in the country, with the 3rd-best explosive-play rate in FBS at 17%, and the turnover margin is +7. When that unit shows up it looks like a national title offense. It did not show up in Knoxville.
The other piece is my sims choking LSU's passing game. LSU throws for 328.1 a game and the sims hold it to 225, with the 3rd-down rate falling from 54.5% to 36.6%. Alabama's defense allows 240.8 through the air on the season, so the sims aren't making that up.
Give LSU its due. The Tigers allow 258.4 yards a game, 5th in FBS, and 85.6 on the ground, also 5th. SP+ has LSU 4th and Alabama 8th. Sam Leavitt is managing a sore hamstring as of this week, and LSU came out of the bye with no new injuries.
Alabama has several injured starters, and DeBoer says five key players are "headed in a good direction," which could mean anything from full speed to a sweatsuit on the sideline. I'll live with a coin flip. If the explosives land and Bama stays on the right side of the turnover column, 49 looks low. If Knoxville Alabama shows up, 49 looks generous.
Kentucky's Ball Security Against a Defense That Takes It Away
Kentucky is 7-1, +13 in turnover margin, 3rd in FBS, and beat LSU 35-34 at home. FPI gives the Cats 33.2% in Knoxville. My sims give them 48.4% and a 24-24 median.
The strange part is how the sims get there, because they do it while undercutting the thing Kentucky does best. Kenny Minchey hasn't thrown a pick in six straight games. The sims have Kentucky throwing 0.9 interceptions in this one against a 0.143 season average, because Tennessee's defense forces 1.143 a game.
The other side is weirder. Tennessee's passing offense is 127th in FBS at 181.5 yards a game, and the QB job is unsettled as of this week, with George MacIntyre starting the last three and Faizon Brandon hurt against Auburn. My sims still have Tennessee throwing for 226 against a 167.0 season norm, because Kentucky's pass defense allows 249.4 yards, 108th in the country.
So the sims see Tennessee's worst unit getting healthy, Kentucky giving the ball away more than it has all year, and still call it a tie. Kentucky has to be doing a lot right everywhere else for that math to land at 24-24.
Tennessee's run game is the real engine, 213.0 a game, 18th, and its defense allows 288.5 yards, 16th. Kentucky's margin for error is the turnover column, and the sims take a chunk of it away. If Minchey keeps the streak alive, this one flips.
Missouri Needs Texas to Keep Giving It Away
Texas's offense is 116th in FBS in EPA per play at -0.04, averages 3.6 yards a carry, and sits at -3 in turnover margin. Missouri is +8, 6th in the country. The underdog's path is Texas dropping it and Missouri picking it up.
FPI gives Missouri 28.7%. My sims give it 44.9% with a Texas 24, Missouri 21 median. Texas is banged up too, with LT Trevor Goosby out for the season and several starters questionable as of this week. Arch Manning got sacked five times against Mississippi State.
Missouri's run defense allows 98.6 yards a game, 16th, so Texas's ground game probably doesn't find its footing here. And Ahmad Hardy is back for Missouri after missing seven games, which matters for a team that wants to shorten this thing.
Then Texas's defense walks in. It allows 5.4 yards per pass attempt, best in FBS, and 273.1 total yards, 7th. Missouri's offense succeeds on 41% of its snaps, 113th, and the sims have Texas forcing 3-and-outs on 38.4% of Missouri's drives against a 20.2% norm.
The sims also have Missouri turning it over 1.3 times against a 0.571 season average, which is what happens when you throw into the best pass defense in the country. Missouri needs Texas to be sloppier than Missouri, and Missouri gets plenty sloppy in these sims. That's a narrower path than +8 vs -3 makes it look.
The One Upset the Sims Like Most
Tulsa. It's the only game on this list where my sims make the underdog an outright favorite at 61.6%, and it's the one with the simplest story. Tulane gives up 214.2 rushing yards a game, and Tulsa gets to run at that all afternoon.
Iowa gets a nod at 50.9%, but Iowa's offense is fully capable of losing a 21-21 game by itself. Tulsa's offense doesn't have to be good. It has to hand the ball off into the worst run defense it'll see all year.
Tulsa has looked good this year, and I think they win this one. Give me the team that can run against the team that can't stop it.